Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

512
FXUS61 KRNK 261035
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
635 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation forecast update.

Rain chances have slightly decreased across mountain locations
for today as increased dry air aloft looks to stymie shower
development throughout today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY 1: Rain likely on Friday followed by cooler weather and
then another warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY 1: Rain likely on Friday followed by cooler weather and
then another warming trend.


The forecast has little changes from previous discussions. On
Thursday, a small disturbance from the northwest will provide some
upslope rain for the West Virginia counties. Most of this area will
receive trivial amounts of precipitation except for Western
Greenbrier which may see up to a tenth of a inch. A cold front is
still projected to arrive on Friday but the exact timing is still
undetermined. Recent model guidance now has the passage in the
middle of the day. Counties in the Piedmont of VA/NC will warm up
into the upper 70s to lower 80s before the front arrives to humble
them. Areas to the northwest will likely be the warmest first thing
Friday morning as the cold front pushes in drier and cooler air.
Precipitation forced by the front is likely for most of the region.
Higher elevations will likely see higher rain totals of up to 0.50
inches while other locations in southwest VA may receive between
0.15-0.30". North Carolina, aside from the mountains, may see the
least amount of rain with only between 0.01-0.15" possible. Flooding
concerns are low given dry/drought conditions throughout the area
and the progressive nature of the storms. These storms will likely
be linear in formation but are not forecast to be severe given a
serious lack of instability by the time they arrive.

The cold front will bring some gusty winds to the area which will
last Friday into Saturday. On Friday, a westerly low level jet forms
and a surface pressure gradient develops along and west of the Blue
Ridge. Surface winds will gust between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph at higher elevations thanks to the jet. The 850mb jet moves out
of the area but another disorganized jet forms after early Saturday
morning to shift winds from the north. While the winds at this
pressure level will not be as strong as Friday, they are more
perpendicular to the mountains and will result in higher gusts at
ridge tops. Before sunrise Saturday, higher elevations and ridgetops
may have wind gusts up to 45 mph. Lower elevation wind gusts along
and west of the Blue Ridge may have gusts of 15-30 mph. With these
winds and colder air, below freezing wind chills are likely.
Saturday morning wind chills are expected to be in the lower 20s to
lower 30s. The higher altitude locations may have wind chill values
in the teens.

The winds will calm down by Saturday evening as the center of an
approaching surface high pressure system following the front will be
over Virginia by the weekend. This will clear skies out temporarily
and keep weather benign. Early next week, however, a warming trend
gets reintroduced. A large mid-level ridge over the US/Mexican
border moves eastward to the Gulf and Florida. This, combined, with
southwesterly winds at 850mb will result in a warming trend that
will bring air and dew point temperatures up. By the middle of next
week, dew points will have rebounded from the teens and 20s to the
40s and 50s and air temperatures will be as high as the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals through
the TAF period. Some brief periods of MVFR CIGs may occur across
BLF and LWB during the morning hours today; however, guidance
has suggested that dry air through the low to mid levels may
keep cloud bases around 4-6 thousand feet. Some isolated shower
activity can`t be ruled out across these areas today as well.

Winds will generally remain out of the southwest today at around
10 knots across all terminals, with gusts in the 15 to 20 knot
range through the afternoon and evening hours. Wind gusts look
to continue through the early overnight hours as well as a cold
front slowly starts to approach the area. Towards the end of the
TAF period, between 03-06 UTC, LLWS looks to develop at all
terminals as the cold front makes its approach to the region.
This LLWS looks to last through the end of the TAF period, and
into Friday morning. Some MVFR CIGs look to start to make their
way into BLF and LWB towards the 10-12 UTC window on Friday as
the front makes its approach to the region from the north and
west.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will cross the area on Friday, providing an
opportunity for lowered ceilings and visibilities for all sites
as the frontal boundary interacts with the regional terrain. VFR
conditions are forecasted to return for this weekend, along
with cool and dry conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...DS/EB