Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

069
FXUS61 KRNK 060019
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
719 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Saturday will be cold but dry across the area, with cloudy
conditions expected to continue across much of the area through
early afternoon before some breaks in the clouds start to
develop. An upper level low will push through the region late
Sunday into Monday, which could bring some chances for light
rain and snow showers across the region. Then, a period of
quieter weather, until another system nears the region late next
week, bringing the chances for rain and snow showers once
again to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Freezing fog possible overnight and into tomorrow morning.

2) Winter Weather Advisory issued for the freezing fog threat,
and for black ice tonight through Saturday morning.

Given the increasing confidence in freezing fog overnight, and
for a refreeze of untreated roads, bridges, overpasses, and
other surfaces, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
some areas of the VA and NC Piedmont. The potential for black
ice exists areawide, as most of the forecast area will remain at
or below freezing, but the confidence is higher for freezing
fog east of the Blue Ridge, and so have keep the Advisory to
that area. Nonetheless, wherever you are in the forecast area,
please use caution when on the roads tonight and tomorrow
morning as they could be very slick.

Previous discussion below...

As of 200 PM EST Friday...


Upper level troughing looks to remain in place across the
eastern conus on Saturday. Mid and upper level shortwave energy
will continue to move along the axis of this trough and across
the region during this timeframe. While moisture will not be
present through Saturday, a thick cloud deck is expected to
remain in place for much of the day on Saturday until a brief
transitory high pressure system skirts through the area leading
to some breaks in the clouds towards the evening hours tomorrow.
Temperatures through the remainder of this evening and through
the overnight hours don`t look to change across the region, with
many sitting at or below freezing thanks to the fresh snowpack
and residual cloud cover. These temperatures will generally stay
at or just below freezing through the overnight, with 1-3
degrees of cooling possible. With near saturated surface level
RH values through the overnight, some freezing drizzle and fog
looks possible across the area. Overall, with confidence being
low in freezing drizzle and fog forming overnight, there will
likely be no accumulation for much of the area. If confidence
grows in freezing drizzle and fog likely forming, there could
be the potential need for a special weather statement or another
winter weather advisory.

Southwesterly wind, and some breaks during the afternoon hours
on Saturday will allow for some heating across the region.
Afternoon highs look to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s
west of the Blue Ridge, and upper 40s east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Quieter weekend with below normal temperatures

2) Front on Sunday night/Monday morning will bring rain and
transition to snow

There won`t be much time between systems this weekend after an
active Friday brought snow to much of Virginia. The first half of
Sunday will be quiet ahead of a weak front. A southern stream system
caused by a small shortwave will first begin to spread rain over the
CWA starting Sunday night. As the front passes overnight and Monday
morning, much of that rain will transition to snow or a mix of rain
and snow. The expected period of snow is not very long, and with the
low QPF forecasted with this system, accumulation will be light or
non-existent. Maybe a dusting on roofs and railings east of the
Blue Ridge where a mix is more likely. A few tenths to an inch
may fall in the highest elevation portions of the mountains in
our forecast area. Expect precipitation to end around sunset
Monday as high pressure takes hold again in the post-frontal
environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Bigger system in the mid-week may miss to our north

2) Late week front will follow shortly behind

High pressure will disperse on Wednesday as a deepening low pressure
system passes over the Great Lakes region. Previous model runs had
this system moving a bit further south, and thus allowing its
associated front to impact the Mid-Atlantic more robustly. Latest
runs, however, exhibit a northwestward turn early on, pulling the
system up and away from the Mid-Atlantic. This may be an outlier
run, so PoPs have not been entirely removed from this time period,
but they have been reduced.

This system is quickly followed up on Friday by another system that
looks to stay a bit further south, passing more through the Ohio
valley, bringing the front into a more direct interaction with our
area. P-types are still unclear for both of these systems, but it is
mid-December and a swift warm up is unlikely given the overall
synoptic pattern, so that will be a closely monitored topic in
upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Friday...

MVFR or lower conditions are observed across the area this
evening, and will continue through late morning to midday
Saturday for all terminals. Low ceilings will persist until
about 14Z or so Saturday, when clouds begin to scatter and
lift. A return to VFR conditions for most comes by Saturday
afternoon/evening, after about 20Z, with more breaks and
clearing in sky cover.

Areas of fog are also developing around the region, dropping
visibilities to 2 miles or less in some locations. Expect this
trend to continue until early Saturday morning, with some areas
of freezing fog and/or drizzle, impacting KLYH, KDAN, KROA, and
possibly KBCB, but confidence is highest east of the Blue Ridge
for freezing fog. Temperatures will be at or below freezing for
most of the area, and fog is likely for most, but just where and
for how long the overlap between the sub-freezing temperatures
and fog/drizzle is a little more uncertain. Aviation impacts
from the freezing fog/drizzle also include potential for icing
on aircraft and slick runways.

Winds will be light through the period, at 7 to 8 knots or
less, mainly westerly winds west of the Blue Ridge and
southwesterly in the Foothills and Piedmont.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another system bringing potential for widespread sub VFR
conditions comes late Sunday and through Monday, with potential
for more wintry precipitation. Yet another system approaches
during the midweek time frame, but the track of the system and
its associated impacts are uncertain at this time. It may not
be until higher pressure moves in around middle of next week
that skies become clear.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Saturday for VAZ043>047-
     058-059.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/EB
NEAR TERM...AS/EB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AS/EB/PM